By Manzar Qureshi, London:
The recent terror attack in Pahalgam that claimed civilian lives triggered a loud response from India suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, deployment of INS Vikrant, and promises of retribution. But the action quickly lost momentum. As Pakistan, backed by China, deployed advanced anti-ship missile systems, INS Vikrant was quietly recalled to dock. When India flaunted Meteor Air to Air, china quickly provided an even longer BVR PL-15s. What began as a show of strength turned into an implicit admission of vulnerability.
Diplomatic Efforts Stall as the World Looks the Other Way
India’s efforts to galvanize international opinion and isolate Pakistan have gained little traction. Major powers have largely stayed silent, unwilling to be drawn into another South Asian crisis. New Delhi’s narrative has struggled to make a dent globally.
But this isn’t due to Pakistan’s diplomatic finesse. India’s isolation is more the product of a changing global order—one driven by geopolitical fatigue, shifting alliances, and transactional diplomacy. China’s growing soft power, combined with its firm support for Pakistan, has helped Islamabad weather pressure and project confidence. In this environment, perception is currency and India’s appears to be devaluing.
Pakistan’s Confidence, India’s Paralysis
Pakistan has seized the moment with unflinching confidence. Its military posture, bold rhetoric, and regional backing have painted a picture of a state that is assertive and unafraid. India, meanwhile, appears paralyzed, trapped between escalation and inaction.
This contrast has fed a narrative of imbalance. Pakistan is seen as setting the terms of engagement, while India remains hesitant, calculating, and uncertain. The strategic gap is not just military, it’s psychological.
Shimla Accord Suspension Raises Alarms
Compounding Delhi’s unease, Pakistan recently suspended the Shimla Accord, a foundational document guiding bilateral engagement. The move, largely symbolic, was nonetheless significant. It signaled a formal departure from traditional diplomatic constraints and raised alarms in Delhi about Pakistan’s willingness to discard long-standing norms and Line Of Control.
With no formal framework left to manage tensions, India faces a more unpredictable and assertive neighbor, emboldened by international disinterest.
India Seeks a Backchannel Exit, Iran Steps In
With overt diplomacy yielding little, India has reportedly turned to Iran to signal interest in deescalation. Tehran offered to mediate, leveraging its ties with both countries. But Pakistan, sensing the upper hand, showed little enthusiasm. The cold response underlined its confidence and unwillingness to concede ground just as regional dynamics swing in its favor.
From Minion to Contender: Pakistan’s Rising Profile
The real winner of this standoff may not be measured in territory or treaty, but in perception. Once seen as a reactive power, Pakistan has used this crisis to rebrand itself. Its firm posture and refusal to bend have resonated, especially in the Middle East.
In Gulf capitals, where strength and resolve command attention, Pakistan’s defiance has gained it unexpected respect. Backed by China and increasingly assertive in its own right, Islamabad is no longer a marginal player0it has been catapulted from minion to contender.
India at a Strategic Crossroads
India is now at a defining junction. The chance to assert strength and leadership has passed. In its place is a shrinking set of options, clouded by hesitation and lack of clear messaging.
This crisis began as a test of India’s capacity to project strength and set the regional tone. Instead, it has exposed vulnerabilities, strategic, diplomatic, and perceptual. If New Delhi fails to recalibrate swiftly, this moment may mark not just a tactical loss, but the beginning of a broader regional shift where India no longer leads, but reacts.
