WASHINGTON: A report by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), released on Tuesday, highlights the growing threat from ISIS-K, which has expanded its capabilities since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan stated that ISIS-K now poses a greater threat with a broader reach than before the US military exit.
The report criticizes the current underestimation of counterterrorism needs, warning that neglecting this threat could undermine broader strategic objectives. It suggests that policymakers should recalibrate their focus on counterterrorism to mitigate risks and protect the strategic competition agenda.
“If terrorists succeed in their intentions, it would not only cause tragic loss of life but also significantly impact America’s strategic competition agenda,” the report states. This underscores the need to balance counterterrorism with strategic priorities, especially given the growing rivalry with China and Russia.
The report also highlights the severe implications of potential terrorist attacks on US soil or interests. “A mass-casualty attack would compel policymakers to respond assertively, diverting resources, leadership attention, and political capital from the current focus on strategic competition,” it explains. Such a diversion could hinder efforts to maintain a balanced approach to global strategic challenges.
Reflecting on the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal, the report notes that failed counterterrorism efforts could harm US credibility. “During the Afghanistan withdrawal, Washington assured allies and partners that it would retain the capability to address terrorist threats from Afghanistan,” the report recalls. Failure to prevent such attacks could tarnish America’s international reputation and strategic alliances.
The report also warns of broader regional consequences of unchecked terrorist activities in Afghanistan, particularly concerning India. “Terrorist attacks from Afghanistan and Pakistan against a key partner like India could ignite dangerous regional crises, distracting India from focusing on the challenge posed by China,” it explains.
The USIP emphasizes the need for a strategic recalibration to ensure counterterrorism efforts are not sidelined but integrated with broader US strategic goals. “Given these stakes, the United States should consider recalibrating its focus on counterterrorism to safeguard the strategic competition agenda,” the report recommends. This would involve preventive investments in counterterrorism to sustain focus on strategic competition.
The report concludes that addressing the rising terrorism threats from Afghanistan and Pakistan is crucial for maintaining US security and strategic interests. The proposed strategies aim to balance robust counterterrorism measures with the broader objectives of US foreign policy, particularly in the context of strategic competition with major global powers.
