Afghanistan’s stunning victory against Australia has injected fresh intensity into Group 1 of the Super Eight stage of the T20 World Cup 2024, reshaping semifinal qualification scenarios. The group is now wide open for all teams based on the results of the remaining matches. However, the impending rain forecast for tomorrow’s crucial Australia vs India clash at Daren Sammy Stadium in St. Lucia adds further intrigue to Group 1.
Semifinal Qualification Scenarios
Here is a breakdown of the qualification scenarios based on the results of the remaining two matches:
Scenario 1: Australia and Afghanistan Win
If Australia edges out a victory and Afghanistan follows suit, three teams will finish with four points. If Australia wins narrowly, Afghanistan must secure a 36-run margin against Bangladesh to surpass Australia on net run rate and qualify. Should Australia chase down a win on the last ball, Afghanistan would need to achieve victory in 15.4 overs or less (based on a first-innings score of 160).
To oust India, Australia must win by a substantial margin (41 runs), while Afghanistan needs to beat Bangladesh by at least 83 runs.
Scenario 2: India and Bangladesh Win
India would lead the group with six points. The remaining three teams would all have two points each, with net run rate (NRR) determining the second semifinalist. Australia currently holds the best NRR among the three teams. Even if Afghanistan loses narrowly, Australia would need to lose by a significant margin (31 runs) to slip below Afghanistan on NRR. For Bangladesh to secure the second spot in the group, they would need to win by 31 runs and hope Australia loses by 55 runs.
Scenario 3: Australia and Bangladesh Win
India and Australia would qualify with four points each, leaving Afghanistan and Bangladesh with two points.
Scenario 4: India and Afghanistan Win
India and Afghanistan would qualify with six and four points, respectively.
Scenario 5: If India vs Australia Match is Abandoned
The forecasts are bleak for the Australia vs India match, with a potential rainout favoring India as both teams would share points. With five points in hand, India would secure a semifinal spot. Australia, with three points, would need Afghanistan to lose to Bangladesh to secure their place in the semis.
